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Title : Fuel Cells June 2017 - Fools Cells?
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Fuel Cells June 2017 - Fools Cells?

We take a look at Fuel Cell vehicles sales performance in the first half of 2017, after the introduction of the Toyoa Mirai in 2015, FCEV's are on their Year Two, more or less where EV's were in 2012, so if they follow the same growth curve as plug-ins, we should see this technology reach 100.000 sales this year.

Well, is it going to reach six digits? At 1.602 units registered this year, up 39% YoY, it is well below that, if they reach 5.000 this year, it will already be a good result

But let's look at the individual performances of the three models currently on sale:

Toyota Mirai - 1.169 Mirai were registered in 2017, a small step above the 1.020 of the previous year, but well below expectations. I had thought the model would be selling around 1.000 units/month, so...Why the slow sales?

Honda Clarity FCEV - 359 units were registered in  the first half of its first full sales year, well above the 113 units of 2016, its landing year, but below expectations (1.000 units in the first half of 2017). But the interesting thing here is that Honda, maybe realizing the upcoming disaster, decided to make the car available also as PHEV and BEV. It will be up to the consumer to decide what to pick, and i bet both the BEV and PHEV will outsell the FCEV version...

Hyundai ix35/Tucson FCEV - Numbers of the Korean Fuel Cell dropped slightly regarding 2016, with 74 units being registered this year. A discontinued model in its ICE form, and currently being done by special order, it is  amazingly still the best selling FCEV in Europe, with 46 units.

If the Model 3 is BMW's boogeyman, imagine what it should be to Fuel Cells...

(Spoiler alert: Diapers needed)

The Future

Looking forward, the upcoming 2018 Hyundai FE Fuel Cell may be the technology last chance to survive, said to have 800 kms range and, crucially, cheaper than the 65.000 euro, it could be the break out model needed to reach the tens of thousands units per year, the minimum needed to start creating economies of scale.

Thing is...2018 will be Year One of the EV entry into the mainstream, with exponential growth and at least three models surpassing the 100.000 units sales per year (Tesla Model 3 - 300k; Nissan Leaf II - 150-200k; Toyota Prius Prime/PHV - 120k), and the Chinese market continuing to grow in large volumes, the economies of scale for PEVs are becoming too large for Fuel Cells to follow suit.

And with no other automakers betting for real in FCEVs, it all looks that the technology will become a footnote in the passenger car history, possibly as part of a Fools Cell joke.

Now, regarding Heavy Duty Trucks and Buses, they could still have a shot of success here, but with with the Tesla Semi Truck coming in a couple of years and the Chinese BEV Bus makers preparing to invade foreign markets, the window of success is becoming smaller and smaller...

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